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IEEFA’s newest Europe’s fuel consumption in 2023 fell to its lowest stage in 10 years as nations scale up effectivity measures and renewables deployment. Within the two years since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, fuel demand has declined by 20% throughout the continent.
The most recent model of IEEFA’s European LNG Tracker reveals that falling fuel demand has been pushed primarily by Germany, Italy, and the UK. The continent’s LNG consumption is forecasted to peak in 2025 in consequence.
With markets quickly curbing their reliance on Russian fuel within the wake of the invasion, IEEFA had forecasted that imports of LNG would rise in 2023 to make up for the shortfall; nevertheless, Europe’s LNG demand was in reality flat 12 months on 12 months.
Regardless of this, nations proceed developing new LNG infrastructure: Eight import terminals have come on-line since February 2022, and an extra 13 initiatives are anticipated to be operational by 2030. Which means that the mixed capability of Europe’s LNG terminals might be 3 times larger than its anticipated LNG demand by the tip of the last decade.
“Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s vitality system is extra diversified and resilient. The disaster has been managed to an extent, effectivity measures have been scaled up and renewables and warmth pump installations have accelerated. This has arrange the continent to proceed lowering fuel demand,” mentioned Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, Lead Power Analyst, Europe, at IEEFA.
“Having skilled the risks of risking safety of vitality provide by relying an excessive amount of on one supply, Europe should be taught from its previous errors and keep away from turning into over-reliant on the US, which offered almost half of its LNG imports final 12 months.”
Russian LNG imports rise
Europe’s success in slashing Russian piped fuel imports contrasts with its rising shipments of LNG from the nation. Between 2021 and 2023, Russian LNG provide to Europe elevated 11%; shipments to Spain doubled and to Belgium greater than tripled. Türkiye and Greece began importing Russian LNG in 2022.
Spain, France, and Belgium obtained 80% of Europe’s Russian LNG imports final 12 months.
The European terminals that imported probably the most Russian LNG between 2021 – 2023 have been Zeebrugge (Belgium), Montoir-de-Bretagne (France), Bilbao (Spain), Gate (the Netherlands), Dunkerque (France), and Mugardos (Spain).
Europe maintains LNG terminal buildout
Since February 2022, Europe has added 53.5 billion m3 of latest LNG regasification capability. Final 12 months, eight of Europe’s 37 import terminals had utilisation charges below 50%.
A further 94 billion m3 of latest or expanded LNG import capability is within the starting stage and is predicted to be operational by 2030. This can carry Europe’s LNG capability to 405 billion m3.
“Within the final two years, Europe has reworked its vitality system and has carried out strategies to decrease the consequences of the vitality disaster. That is the time to look at which insurance policies labored and proceed with them whereas putting in new methods that would give Europe the sting to handle dangers sooner or later,” Jaller-Makarewicz concluded.
Learn the article on-line at: https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/21022024/ieefa-europes-gas-consumption-falls-to-10-year-low-as-peak-lng-demand-nears/
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