Commodities 2023: Pause on US LNG additions means extra provides for US fuel market

No new main US LNG vegetation anticipated till 2024

Lack of additives drives expectations of stronger home provides

Stage set for decrease Henry Hub costs as drilling picks up

US liquefaction capability additions are poised to flatline in 2023, supporting softer home costs and permitting storage ranges to refill as the most important driver of US fuel demand development begins to stall till the following wave of LNG export amenities is constructed.

The shortage of recent liquefaction capability coming on-line within the US in 2023, mixed with tepid additions globally, stands to maintain strain on the worldwide fuel market because it grapples with excessive volatility and persistently excessive costs.

“The US manufacturing response is not anticipated till 2024 on the earliest,” Ross Wyeno, lead analyst for LNG Americas at S&P World, mentioned in a latest interview.

Enterprise World expects the primary part of its as much as 20 million mt/yr Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana to come back on-line at the moment. The 18.1 million mt/yr Golden Move LNG terminal, which has been underneath building since early 2019, can also be anticipated to start out manufacturing in late 2024. However a dearth of funding selections to construct US LNG terminals in recent times leaves little else till the following wave of amenities comes on-line from late 2024 onward.

World fuel crunch

Business exercise tied to US LNG tasks surged in 2022 as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended the worldwide fuel market, rising the chance further US export tasks will advance to building. However constructing main LNG export terminals takes years.

US developer New Fortress Power has mentioned it might add a number of 1.4 million mt/yr floating export amenities within the Gulf Coast in 2023, though allowing challenges might pressure a delay.

Cheniere Power, the most important US LNG exporter, not too long ago estimated that the annual international LNG development fee has plunged from greater than 10% in 2018 to about 2% at present. Cheniere Chief Business Officer Anatol Feygin informed traders through the firm’s most up-to-date earnings convention name that the worldwide LNG market had not seen liquefaction additions that modest since 2012, when costs in an imbalanced market “clearly signaled the necessity for brand new LNG capability.”

“Given the lengthy lead time required to develop LNG tasks, we count on market balances to probably stay tight for the following a number of years, exacerbated by the disaster in Europe and the discount of Russian provide to the European market,” Feygin mentioned through the name Nov. 3.

The shortage of recent LNG export amenities in 2023 stands to constrain pure fuel provide and pressure international fuel markets to stability on demand destruction and current shares, in accordance with S&P World’s 2023 power outlook. Europe, fighting an power disaster, might see even tighter fuel and energy markets in 2023 because it faces the primary full yr with out important volumes of Russian pipeline fuel.

Utilization of US liquefaction amenities remained robust headed into the ultimate weeks of 2022, with feedgas flows that topped 13 Bcf/d in mid-December, S&P World Commodity Insights information exhibits. And people volumes, already round 13% of US dry fuel manufacturing, stand to rise in 2023 with the restart of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas.

Freeport, which has been offline since a hearth in June, might restart partial manufacturing by the top of 2022 and add some 2 Bcf/d of feedgas demand in January, in accordance with the operator.

Higher equipped home market

In the meantime, home fuel manufacturing is anticipated to rise by practically 3 Bcf/d in 2023, in accordance with S&P World.

“Costs are supportive proper now of elevated US fuel manufacturing,” Wyeno mentioned. “The shortage of recent liquefaction capability subsequent yr may very well be bearish for near-term pricing, however the medium- to long-term development in LNG export capability will create a requirement sink for these further volumes and will very effectively rationalize near-term investments in drilling.”

Rising manufacturing amid the pause in LNG capability additions units the stage for a better-supplied home market in 2023 and 2024 that may enable Henry Hub costs to maneuver decrease, in accordance with Goldman Sachs analysts.

S&P World forecasts costs at Henry Hub will common $5.47/MMBtu throughout 2023, peaking close to $7/MMBtu throughout the primary quarter earlier than dipping beneath $5/MMBtu throughout the second and third quarters of the yr amid tight fuel balances and financial headwinds within the US and overseas. Goldman Sachs has forecast summer time 2023 NYMEX pure fuel costs at $4.15/MMBtu and summer time 2024 costs at $3.55/MMBtu.

“We count on 2025 to mark the top of this bearish cycle as LNG export capability additions convey a significant step-up in demand,” Goldman oil and fuel analysts mentioned in a be aware Dec. 14 to purchasers. “In our view, this may require fuel costs nearer to $5/MMBtu, above present forwards, to incentivize elevated exercise amongst higher-cost producers with a view to service this speedy surge in demand.”