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The market sentiment for gasoline and LNG will stay bearish into 2024 with European costs having fallen by 45% to US$10/million Btu up to now three months based on a report by Wooden Mackenzie.
The report ‘World Fuel and LNG: 5 issues to look out for in 2024’ states that top storage ranges coupled with a light Northern Hemisphere winter will see international costs stay comparatively weak this 12 months amid subdued international demand.
“[Wood Mackenzie] has been forecasting decrease 2024 costs for a lot of final 12 months, particularly in comparison with ahead curves, amid weak market basic expectations,” stated Massimo Di Odoardo Vice President of Fuel Analysis at Wooden Mackenzie. “World LNG provide development will stay restricted at 14 million t, however with Asian LNG demand nonetheless weak, competitors for LNG is unlikely to warmth up.”
European gasoline demand diminished by 7% in 2023, additionally due to gentle climate. Regular climate dynamics and a potential financial rebound would assist demand, nonetheless with renewable provide rising by greater than 100 TWh and nuclear manufacturing in France persevering with to return again, European gasoline demand will stay flat at finest.
The report anticipates a extra constructive view on gasoline demand in Asia, with anticipated development of 12.5 million t, or 5% in comparison with 2023, however 2024 demand will nonetheless be virtually 3 million t decrease than ranges in 2021.
With 60 LNG carriers because of be commissioned in 2024, the report additionally forecasts that the worldwide LNG transport market is susceptible to oversupply.
“Altogether, the 60 new vessels equate to 10.4 million m3 of LNG transport capability, enough to maneuver 54 million typ of LNG between the US Gulf Coast and Eu-rope,” Di Odoardo stated. “There will probably be restricted natural LNG provide development and the majority of US LNG it’s nonetheless anticipated to be routed to Europe, reasonably than Asia, limiting demand for transport and placing strain on freight charges.”
Portfolio gamers, the important thing LNG gamers that mixture provide from the world over and promote to a number of prospects, have been the most important driver of LNG exercise over the 2 previous years based on the report. Nonetheless, having signed 72 million tpy of long-term contracts in 2022 and 2023 and with most Qatari fairness offers now finalised, the report states that portfolio gamers will doubtless really feel comfy with their positions and be extra selective in constructing their portfolio additional.
Finish-user exercise can be anticipated to ease with Chinese language consumers already signing much less contracts after a busy interval in 2021 and 2022 the place a number of offers have been struck with sellers within the US and Qatar.
Nonetheless, the report provides that some consumers may take a extra opportunistic method, with US unbiased gamers leveraging on low Henry Hub costs to hunt extra publicity to international LNG costs by taking long-term LNG capability positions, or extra exercise rising in worth delicate Asian markets if contracts costs fall additional.
“[Wood Mackenzie’s] expectation is that general contracting exercise will soften in 2024 in comparison with the large variety of offers signed in 2021, 2022, and 2023,” Di Odoardo concluded.
Learn the article on-line at: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/17012024/wood-mackenzie-gas-prices-down-45-as-2024-market-set-to-remain-bearish/
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