US LNG export terminals stage manufacturing push as European gasoline costs high $100/MMBtu

US feedgas hits 11.5 Bcf/d, highest since July 1

Northwest Europe LNG import value tops $74

Fuel provide uncertainty at fever pitch in Europe

Document international gasoline costs, now buying and selling as excessive as $100/MMBtu in onshore European markets, are placing stress on US LNG export terminals to step up manufacturing, pushing feedgas demand this week to its highest since early July.

On Aug. 25, whole gasoline demand from US export terminals edged as much as over 11.5 Bcf/d, marking its highest stage since July 1. The only-day demand excessive isn’t any fluke — over the previous week, feedgas demand has trended simply shy of that stage, averaging practically 11.2 Bcf/d, knowledge from Platts Analytics exhibits.

The continued ramp up of manufacturing at Enterprise International’s Calcasieu Move terminal has been a key driver behind current beneficial properties in US liquefaction exercise, with flows to the still-commissioning 10 million mt/yr terminal estimated at a record-high 1.6 Bcf/d on Aug. 26.

Whereas the June 8 shut-in of manufacturing at Freeport LNG reduce US export capability by some 2 Bcf/d, or about 15%, this summer time, the US’ different six operational terminals are making a push to maximise output — and for good purpose.

On Aug. 26, spot LNG import costs in Northwest Europe surged to their highest on report for the third consecutive day, this time hitting $74.49/MMBtu. In East Asia, Platts benchmark JKM import value climbed to over $71/MMBtu on Aug. 25, earlier than easing again to the mid-$66 vary on Aug. 26. At present ranges, JKM costs are at their highest for the reason that single-day value of $84.76 was recorded in early March, knowledge from S&P International Commodity Insights exhibits.

Within the US market, the Platts Gulf Coast Marker for FOB cargoes loading 30-60 days ahead was assessed at $73.35/MMBtu Aug. 26, up $6.10/MMBtu on the day to a brand new excessive.

Uncertainty in Europe

The run up in international costs, which have surged this week, comes because the European gasoline market grapples with rising provide uncertainty. Most just lately, Norwegian transmission system operator, Gassco, suggested European end-users of a deliberate upkeep on the Karsto, Oseberg and Kristin gasoline belongings, from Aug. 26- Sept. 7, Platts reported beforehand. The upkeep cuts Norwegian pipeline provide to Europe by some 23.5 million cu m/d, or about 800 MMcf/d.

The continuing pipeline upkeep provides to European shoppers’ angst over the extended shut-in of manufacturing at Freeport LNG, introduced Aug. 23. The surprising, month-long delay pushes again the timeline for the Texas export terminal’s restart to early- to mid-November, protecting offline about 2 Bcf/d in US export capability till Europe’s winter heating season is already properly underway.

European dependence on international suppliers like Freeport LNG is at a fever pitch forward of this winter as Russia, among the many continent’s largest suppliers, ratchets down flows on the important thing Nord Stream pipeline to simply 20% of capability with a deliberate three-day upkeep anticipated to cutoff flows fully beginning Aug. 31, Platts reported beforehand.