Reflections on week 1 at COP27 – Eva Cairns & Jeremy Lawson

In assessment of the primary week of COP27, Eva Cairns, Head of Sustainability Insights & Local weather Technique and Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist, abrdn mirror on their key takeaways.

On the finish of week 1 right here at Sharm El-Sheik, it’s clear that COP27 is continuing very in another way from COP26 in Glasgow. It was all the time meant to give attention to implementation reasonably than main new bulletins – however have we seen sufficient progress?

1.               A distinct focus for local weather finance: COP26 was all about transition finance, with GFANZ launched to spotlight that trillions doubtlessly obtainable to assist internet zero objectives if policymakers received their act collectively. At COP27, the main focus has been way more on the finance wanted to adapt to local weather change and compensate growing international locations for the loss and injury they’re incurring. It’s encouraging that that is firmly on the agenda and the Egyptian presidency has set clear 2030 adaptation outcomes. Quite a lot of international locations together with Austria and New Zealand have already pledged modest sums, however mobilising personal finance is proving much more troublesome. Scaling up blended finance – de-risking funding via private and non-private partnerships – has been a key theme of the conferences.

2.               The disappearing ratcheting mechanism: At COP26, Local weather Motion Tracker evaluation highlighted that 2030 pledges (Nationally Decided Contributions) added as much as 2.4 levels of warming, with international locations requested to replace their pledges by COP27 to extra intently align with 1.5C. Solely 24 international locations up to date their NCDs since COP26 and the newest Local weather Motion Tracker evaluation means that these haven’t moved the dial from the place we had been a 12 months in the past. It’s exceptional how little consideration that is receiving.

3.               Little proof of implementation on the ‘implementation’ COP: Simply as there was insufficient progress on targets, implementation can be lagging behind. Certainly, international emissions in 2022 are anticipated to succeed in a brand new report excessive in keeping with the UN Emissions Hole report after a short-lived discount in 2021 because of the pandemic. The Local weather Motion Tracker report highlights that the expansion in LNG following the power disaster exacerbated by the invasion of Ukraine is more likely to have a detrimental impression on the transition to internet zero. And new information based mostly on satellite tv for pc imagery and synthetic intelligence strategies, means that oil and fuel emissions are being drastically under-reported. The upshot is that attaining internet zero by 2050 is falling even additional out of attain.

4. A give attention to carbon markets to mobilise capital for decarbonisation: Within the absence of a lot stronger rules and formal carbon pricing, private and non-private actors are doubling down on their reliance on offsetting and voluntary carbon buying and selling initiatives. John Kerry introduced a mechanism to assist growing international locations wean themselves off coal fired energy. Quite a lot of African international locations launched the African Carbon markets initiative with the ambition to succeed in 300 million credit value $6billion produced yearly by 2030. And with a lot fanfare, Vella introduced its one billionth carbon credit score at COP27. These have all obtained combined responses given considerations in regards to the integrity and additionality of voluntary carbon markets, in addition to the potential for offsetting to distract from actual world decarbonisation.

5.               Optimistic progress on disclosure and standardisation: There was some encouraging progress on standardising frameworks for disclosure and transition plans, together with:

1.               The worldwide ISSB normal on sustainability associated disclosures was launched and formally integrated into CDP disclosure necessities

2.               The UK Transition Plan Taskforce printed its framework and implementation information for session to supply a stage enjoying area for transition planning

3.               The HLEG printed an expectations framework for internet zero commitments from non-state actors to strengthen the credibility of commitments and keep away from greenwashing

4.               The progressive information platform climatetrace.org was launched by Al Gore – It gives GHG emissions information based mostly on satellite tv for pc measurement and could possibly be a recreation changer for perceive emissions in areas of low disclosure comparable to rising markets, but additionally for validating self-reported emissions

“The upshot is that until there are vital breakthroughs over the approaching days, Sharm El-Sheik will in all probability go down as one of the vital disappointing COPs of the previous decade.”